1 · WHAT HAPPENED

A big slice of the world's oil went missing, and we are living off the emergency stockpile.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was sharply curtailed during the Middle East conflict, and attacks hit regional export infrastructure, so a large amount of Gulf oil went missing from the world market. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Oct 2026

1 · SUPPLY LOST

OPEC output fell by more than a third.

OPEC crude oil output · million barrels a day · EIA estimates

MISSING OIL · million barrels a day · EIA estimates · smaller = better

Missing oil = oil that would normally reach the world market but cannot, because it cannot be shipped or stored. Empty gauge = back to normal.

2 · NO SPARE CAPACITY

The cushion is gone.

Spare capacity is oil OPEC could add quickly if needed.

OPEC spare production capacity · million barrels a day · EIA estimates

3 · SPENDING THE STOCKPILE

More oil goes out than comes in, so stocks fall.

−0.4

million barrels a day

All U.S. crude oil in storage (commercial + emergency reserve) · million barrels

In = U.S. oil production + imports. Out = oil refined here + exports. Weekly, U.S. only.

THE EMERGENCY RESERVE (SPR)

Weekly change in the emergency reserve · million barrels a week · last 26 weeks

4 · PRICE

Brent crude is far above a year ago.

Brent, latest ()

A year earlier ()

Brent crude oil spot price · $ per barrel · daily

Next: what do the official sources say about when this eases?